PDE MSc 12-13: "I Have To Tell You About The Future!"

[3/10/2012]

Before I can begin designing a chair to be used by office workers 23 years from now, I’ll have to try and answer a near impossible question: what will life be like in 2035?

To try and make the unenviable task of answering this question slightly easier, I have broken Life In 2035 down into 10 categories.

1. Population – Help The Aged (‘cos one day you’ll be older too)

The ONS predicts that the UK population will rise to 73.2 million by mid 2035 with 15 million people over the age of 65. That means one out of every five people will be of “pensionable age”. Although the 65 year old of 2035 will be much more tech savvy than their 2012 equivalent [someone who is 42 now] they will still have the age-old, old-age problems of poor eyesight and limited dexterity.

On the whole, the population of the UK is set to rise to 73 million which will mean this already crowded island is about to get even more crowded. This will lead to us having to use the space we have more economically.

Another possible solution is to build new “New Towns”. David Cameron floated this idea at a meeting in the Institute of Civil Engineering in London and vowed to build new towns that are ‘green, planned, secure, with gardens, places to play and houses full of character, not just car-dominated concrete grids’. If done properly these towns would be designed from the (under) ground up, fit for purpose in the 21^st century and hopefully something akin to Japan’s Fujisawa Sustainable Smart Town. In the right hands this initiative could see the creation of new, eco-friendly living areas for thousands of people. In the wrong hands, it could see the landscape of 21^st century Britain blighted by concrete slums that wouldn’t look out of place in the Orwellian dystopias of many science fiction movies.

2. Energy – The Search For The Grail

It will be the great scientific crusade of the 21^st century: finding a renewable form of energy that can replace fossil fuels before they run out. For decades now, Nuclear Fusion has been seen as the Holy Grail but it has always remained frustratingly out of reach (see picture of metaphor left). The hope is that demonstration fusion plants will be running by 2030 but according to Steve Cowley, CEO of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority, it will only be providing 20-25% of our energy by the year 2100.

That means that in the 21^st century there will need to be greater fuel diversity. If no one form of renewable energy can replace fossil fuels we will need the plethora of competing green energy technologies to step up and make a contribution. To be ready to do this by the time oil becomes unaffordable, they are going to need significant investment and they need it now.

3. Transport – Drivers? Where we’re going we don’t need drivers

Not the first – and I assure you not the last – Back To The Future reference contained within this series of blogs. With Nevada, California and Florida already passing laws that permit Google Maps’ driverless cars to take to the road, it’s not unrealistic to think that by 2035 they will be commonplace. With human error/wilful idiocy no longer a factor, the cars will be safer and will provide private transport to many who are unable to drive. Passengers in driverless cars will be free to do whatever they like. The morning commute will become part of the working day with employees remotely accessing their workstation via an onboard computer and working for the duration of their journey.

Another technology I hope we will see by 2035 is special induction charging lanes for electric cars. The concept involves placing induction charging pads under the road’s surface and a receiver pad under the car. With the car being constantly charged it could theoretically drive on these lanes for the life of the battery. The same technology could be applied to almost all forms of public transport and, provided the electricity was provided by a renewable energy source, could drastically reduce the carbon emissions caused by transport.

Having said all that, the only mode of transport I really want to be commercially available by 2035 is, of course, the Mattel Hoverboard (the original 2015 deadline set in BTTF Part 2 is looking increasingly unlikely).

4. Technology – Augmented Reality Bites

For the uninitiated, Augmented Reality is a live view of the physical world that has been augmented by the inclusion of graphics, videos and sounds to relay additional information to the user. The virtual scene generated by the computer is designed to enhance the user's sensory perception of what they are seeing or interacting with.

AR opens up a huge range of possibilities and could redefine the way we interact with technology and with one another (the line between the two becoming ever more blurred). A person wearing AR glasses or lenses could look at what is, in reality, a blank screen but see all of their work/media in front of them. This would prevent any sensitive information being seen by anyone not intended to see it and could make any office space instantly customisable. In addition, information about people, places or products could pop up on sight [which is great news for those of us who can never remember people’s names].

The picture above is a screen cap from a video produced by 2 art school graduates and shows how they imagine AR will be used in the not-too-distant future. Whether or not a “Wingman” app that allows you to negotiate the perilous waters of a first date more successfully is the most appropriate use for AR is debatable, especially given that this guy believes we’ll have robot girlfriends by then.

Along with AR, gesture control will play a far greater role in how we interact with our tech. From the moment we saw Tom Cruise in Minority Report we have all dreamt of the day we could use gestures to seamlessly interact with a giant touch screen. With the advent of the Kinect and many new TVs boasting similar gesture control capabilities, our collective dream could come true long before 2035 (unless of course someone had a different version of that dream, thereby creating a minority report).

Another technology that could have a profound effect on our lives is 3d printing. A wi-fi enabled home 3d printer could allow customers to buy a product online, download the CAD file and immediately “print” said product in their own home. Another potential benefit is that spare parts for products that have long since been discontinued could be printed on demand, greatly increasing the life span of our products.

The final technology of 2035 (that I will only briefly touch on) is nanomaterials. They have been touted as a panacea for all the scientific and engineering problems facing the world in the 21^st century but, at this point, what size of impact materials engineered on the smallest scale will make remains to be seen.

5. Internet – "I'm Captain Buzz Lightyear from Star Command: Who's in charge here?"- "The CLOOOUUUUUDDD"

By 2020, the number of Internet users will reach almost 5 billion - equal to the entire world's population in 1987. This compares with 1.7 billion users in 2010 and only 360 million in 2000.

Thanks to a combination of ever-lowering costs and exponential improvements in technology, huge numbers of people in developing countries will gain access to the web. Laptops that can be bought for only a few tens of dollars combined with explosive growth in the use of mobile broadband will see the World Wide Web become truly global. By 2035 even some of the most remote places on Earth will have access to the Internet.

In the UK, the internet will have permeated every aspect of our lives with almost all of our computing being done on the cloud. How we pay for things, how we consume media, how we interact with one another, how we learn, how we do just about anything will have changed almost unrecognisably from the pre-internet days of the early 90s. What we have seen in the last few years with the rise of the smartphone, (and the never-ending array of available apps) is only the beginning of ubiquitous technology.

6. Health – The First Rule of Fat Club is we have to talk about Fat Club

A recent study conducted by medical journal The Lancet predicted that by 2030 48% of men and 43% of women in the UK will be classed as obese. This means that by 2035 obesity-related disease is expected to account for over 12% of the NHS’ annual budget, an increase of 9% from the start of the century. This will put a massive (metaphorical and literal) strain on the health service and could lead to widespread resentment among those who have taken care of themselves that such large amounts of public money are being spent treating diseases which are mostly self-inflicted.

All fat jokes aside, as designers these statistics pose some serious questions: should we simply accept the fact that the chronically obese are now/will be a large (that one was accidental) user group and design with their weight in mind? Or do we design in a way that discourages or counteracts their self-destructive behaviour? At what point are we simply enabling a person’s addiction? If the statistics said that nearly half of all people in 2035 will be alcoholics or drug addicts, would we design products specifically so they can be used by the intoxicated?

7. Industry – It’s ALWAYS the economy, stupid!

The general consensus is that Britain has to become less reliant on its financial sector. We have all seen in recent years the danger in being so dependant upon a single industry. It has become clear (even to those in government) that we are going to need a greater number of industries if we are to prosper in the future and, in the process, make ourselves more immune to the vagaries of the international markets.

Our fearless leader, David Cameron, believes the life sciences industry can be one of the areas where 21^st century Britain will thrive. It already employs 160,000 people with an annual turnover of £50 billion. In addition, high tech car manufacture is already prospering in the Midlands with Nissan and Toyota’s plants there rated as the most efficient in Europe. And the renewable energy sector has also managed to thrive despite the double dip recession (and George Osborne’s cuts to their subsidies). The “Digital Britain” agenda has also helped turn part of east London into a hub for tech companies; now known as “Silicone Roundabout”. On top of all these new industries, Britain must continue to be a world leader in professional services and consultancy. With advances in telecommunications, British consultancies could effortlessly export their knowledge and expertise to every nation on earth.

Looking towards 2035 it has become evident that the type of jobs people will be doing will depend, at least in part, on the decisions our leaders make in the coming years. There will, of course, be new technologies or ideas that seemingly come from nowhere and take the world by storm (#didanyonethinkthiswouldbesobig?) but investing in the correct new industries now could go a long way to preserving Britain’s status as an economic superpower in the coming decades. Failure to do so could see us left behind by the likes of Germany before being overtaken by emerging economies like Mexico.

So we should all be grateful that the chancellor has an undoubted Midas touch.

8. Food – Vertical Thinking

The rapid rate of increase in the global population coupled with an increasingly volatile climate will lead to a worldwide food shortage in the coming decades. Although this could be an indispensable ally in the war against obesity it is, generally speaking, a bad thing. One possible solution is for cities to build Vertical Farms. These would effectively be skyscraper greenhouses that could be used to grow all our fruits, vegetables and grains. I won’t go in to the details but if you are interested a list of the concept’s advantages can be found here.

It is a very intriguing idea but seems like nothing more than that at the minute. How exactly it will function in the manner described by its creator, Dr. Dickson Despommier of Columbia University, remains a mystery but one it might be worthwhile trying to solve.

And we may also need some lateral thinking to solve this impending food crisis. Alternative foods like algae, fungi and seaweed (I daresay if you’re both obese and starving they’ll sound a lot more appetising) could also be considered.

9. Climate Change – Extreme Rules

By 2100, the average global temperature is set to rise by a minimum of 1.1 degrees and a maximum of 6.4 degrees. To put this into perspective, a 2 degree rise in average temperature is expected to lead to a 20% drop in crop yields in Southern Europe. It is also enough to threaten 15-40% of all species with extinction.

The melting of glacial ice will cause sea levels to rise by a minimum of 18cm and a maximum of 59cm by the end of the 21^st century. A temperature increase in the middle of the predicted range (3-4 degrees) has the potential to see major cities across the world, including New York and Hong Kong, perennially flooded. Even areas that remain unaffected by the rising sea level will see more extreme weather which could potentially turn crop growing into a lottery. This would lead to a rise in food prices and potential international unrest.

If we do not find a replacement (or replacements) for fossil fuels and are unable to curb our profligate use energy, we may need to look to more radical methods to halt, or even reverse, the rise in co2. One such example is the idea to use nanotechnology to create atmosphere filtration plants which could remove greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere. According to Eric Drexler (nanotechnology expert and academic adviser at Oxford University) “molecular manufacturing capabilities based on advanced nanotechnology will make it possible to reduce co2 concentrations to pre-industrial levels within a short time span.”

So I guess it’s alright to leave my TV on standby after all.

10. The Home/Workplace – Defining (then Redefining) Genba

According to the ever-reliable source that is Wikipedia, Genba is” a Japanese term meaning "the real place." Japanese detectives call the crime scene genba, and Japanese TV reporters may refer to themselves as reporting from genba. In business, genba refers to the place where value is created; in manufacturing the genba is the factory floor. It can be any "site" such as a construction site, sales floor or where the service provider interacts directly with the customer.”

Given the vast improvement in teleconferencing technology and the need to use energy economically, I envisage many workers in the future no longer having to commute to a specific company-owned location. Of course there will still be lines of work which require people to go to the genba but many will either work from home or go to a general office “hub”. These hubs would be located in areas with the greatest population density to minimise the commute time for the maximum number of people (maybe in the new “New Towns” you read so much about these days). The offices themselves would be full of blank cubicles where all the aforementioned technology available in 2035 (AR, high-speed internet etc.) will allow workers to feel like they are in their own genba when actually in general office space. There would still be communal spaces like cafeterias and break rooms to ensure people continue to interact face-to-face and don’t become isolated in a virtual world.

The work itself may become increasingly based on the Results Only Work Environment strategy that sees employees paid for results and not hours worked. With employees free to choose what hours of the day they work (so long as they meet agreed deadlines), the bi-daily rush hour may become a thing of the past.

Conclusion – Tomorrow Never Knows What It Doesn’t Know Too Soon

The truth is, it doesn’t matter how intelligent you are – you could be one of the world’s top scientists and futurists –you will never be able to say with any degree of certainty what the future holds. You only have to look at some of the predictions made by some of the world’s most intelligent people in decades past to see that it is not an exact science.

From the brief research I conducted, these are the issues and technologies I believe will play a major part in all our lives come 2035. I fully understand that I could read this in 23 years time and be astonished by my own naivety. Or equally, in 2035 the world might still be recovering from the international nuclear war that has ended life on earth as we know it. In which case the chair of the future may simply be a rock where the radioactive zombies that have survived the nuclear holocaust can rest their weary legs.

So, given all that, I’ll leave you with the words of the man who knows more about the future than anyone else, Dr Emmett Brown: